Our Methodology
Every football prediction on SoccerFixed goes through the same three-stage research process before it is published. This page documents that process end-to-end so anyone can evaluate whether our approach matches their own standards. 18+.
How every pick gets from fixture to publication
Statistical modelling
Every fixture starts in our statistical layer: expected goals (xG and xGA) rolled 10-match windows, historical head-to-head records, home/away splits, shots-on-target trends, corner and card volumes, and league-adjusted goal distributions. This produces a first-pass probability estimate for every market we cover.
Match-context research
The statistical layer is then filtered through match-context: confirmed and suspected injuries, motivation state (mid-table safety, relegation battle, cup fatigue), managerial changes, weather, expected referee tendencies, travel schedule and rest days. This is where an unusual fixture (a manager under pressure, a squad rotation, a hostile away trip) gets flagged and the first-pass probability is adjusted.
Senior analyst review
Nothing is published until a senior analyst signs it off. Marco Rossi reviews high-tier fixtures; David Vance reviews lower-division fixtures. The review checks whether the statistical + match-context output crosses our conviction threshold, and whether the current bookmaker line offers positive expected value. If any of those fail, the pick is dropped — not downgraded.
What we always do
Written risk disclaimer on every offer
No exceptions. Every paid offer and every free tip carries a written statement that predictions carry risk. We do not use "100% sure", "guaranteed win" or "verified insider" language anywhere on the site.
Public results archive
Every pick we have ever published is dated with the odds shown on the public results archive. Winning and losing picks are recorded identically. Anyone can audit our long-term record.
Discipline over volume
We do not publish a pick for every fixture. On days where no fixture clears the conviction threshold, we publish nothing. Our archive reflects this — you will see days with no offer.
Replacement policy
If a paid pick does not land, eligible customers may receive a replacement pick on the next scheduled fixture in line with the FAQ policy. This is not a guarantee — it is a documented courtesy for paid subscribers.
A rigorous methodology reduces variance — it does not eliminate it. Every published pick carries a written risk disclaimer. No football result is ever guaranteed. 18+.
Meet the analyst team
Read the full bios and specialisations of the analysts behind every published pick.